
In what year will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere?
Plus
10
Ṁ18672200
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
2025-2049
12%
2050-2074
9%
2075-2099
8%
2100-2149
8%
2150-2199
59%
Never
Resolution Criteria
Energy Capture threshold:
The structure must capture and utilize at least 1% of the Sun's total energy output.
Official measurements from at least 3 independent space agencies confirm the energy capture threshold has been reached.
Specifications:
The structure(s) can be of any design: Dyson Sphere, Dyson Swarm, etc
Human Civilization Origination:
The structure has to be built by humans or aligned artificial intelligence or rogue artificial intelligence originating from earth; or a cooperation between humans and AI. Discovery of Dyson sphere built by Extraterrestrial aliens does not count.
Fine Print:
If the resolution criteria are unsatisfied by Jan 1, 2200 the market resolves to “Never.”
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2100?
11% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2150?
43% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2200?
55% chance
Will human civilization build a Dyson Sphere before 2075?
12% chance
Will humanity build a Dyson Sphere/Swarm before 2040?
4% chance
When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?
17% chance
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?
18% chance
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
15% chance
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?
20% chance