US Economy

Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in September?55% chance

Plus

How much will the Fed cut interest rates in September 2024?

57%

50+ bps cut

42%

25 bps cut

1.1%

No change

0%

25+ bps hike

US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)9% chance

Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)20% chance

Plus

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?17% chance

Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?1% chance

Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?8% chance

Mini

Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?4% chance

[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?94% chance

Plus

Will FED cut rates at their September 2024 meeting?99% chance

Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?79% chance

In which FOMC meeting will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

0%

Apr/May 30-1

0.1%

June 11-12

0.1%

July 30-31

98.3%

September 17-18

See 4 more answers

When will FED lower interest rates (so called "pivot")?

99.3%

September 2024

0.6%

November 2024

0.1%

December 2024

0%

July 2024

See 25 more answers

When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

98.1%

Q3 2024

1.4%

Q4 2024

0.3%

2025 and beyond

0.1%

Q2 2024

See 4 more answers

Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st?98% chance

The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.98% chance

Will the FED drop interest rates at least once before the end of 2024?98% chance

[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?13% chance