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ACX 2024
Mirror Bot
Bot
The ACX 2024 prediction contest.
Manifold
Leaderboards
Manifold's leaderboards show the top traders, question creators, and referrers.
Mirror Bot
Bot
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]
5%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
578
Ṁ3.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]
YES
475
Ṁ2.8k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
3%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
174
Ṁ1.5k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
97%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
387
Ṁ2.2k
Manifold Politics
Premium
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
56%
Democratic Party
Yes
No
Open options
44%
Republican Party
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
2410
Ṁ100k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
94%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
220
Ṁ1.6k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
5%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
85
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
9%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
104
Ṁ1.2k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
4%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
66
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
7%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
118
Ṁ1.3k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
4%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
84
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
44%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
152
Ṁ1.4k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
2%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
77
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
4%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
84
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
YES
87
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
19%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
111
Ṁ1.2k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
8%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
72
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
13%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
91
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
87%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
156
Ṁ1.4k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
8%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
92
Ṁ1.1k
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