Middle East

Before which day will Iran directly attack Israel?

0.4%

Sep 20

4%

Sep 27

13%

Oct 01

20%

Nov 01

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Plus

When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire?

2%

October 1st or earlier

11%

November 1st or earlier

15%

December 1st or earlier

21%

January 1st or earlier

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[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?7% chance

When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]

0.6%

Before the end of Aug 2024

1.1%

Before the end of Sep 2024

1.9%

Before the end of Oct 2024

1.9%

Before the end of Nov 2024

See 16 more answers

Plus

Before which day will Iran or its proxies attack Israel?

Resolved

NO

Aug 12

Resolved

NO

Before Aug 14

Resolved

NO

Before Aug 16

Resolved

NO

Before Aug 18

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What Iran's attack against Israel could look like with the support of regional allies

As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.

Hamas' top political leader is killed in Iran in strike that risks triggering all-out regional war

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel "will exact a heavy price from any aggression against us on any front.”

Plus

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?8% chance

Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?12% chance

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?39% chance

Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz quits war Cabinet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's key rival, Benny Gantz, announced Sunday that he is quitting the war Cabinet after a postwar plan for the Palestinian enclave failed to materialize.

When will the hostilities in Gaza end?

1.1%

Sep 2024 or earlier

1.3%

Oct 2024 or earlier

2%

Nov 2024 or earlier

3%

Dec 2024 or earlier

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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?41% chance

May 11, 2024 - Israel-Hamas war | CNN

Israel’s military has ordered the evacuation of more neighborhoods in Rafah ahead of a potential major ground operation in the southern Gaza city, where over 1 million Palestinians are estimated to be displaced.

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?97% chance

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?27% chance

Yahya Sinwar killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?40% chance

Israel-Hamas war | Breaking News & Live Updates

Get the latest developments as the war between Israel and Hamas unfolds.

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?15% chance

Israel fears ICC will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and other top officials

Israel fears that the International Criminal Court (ICC) may issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and senior military officials as early as this week, an Israeli official told NBC News.

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?22% chance

How long will it take the Israeli army to conquer all of Gaza?

67%

N/A

0.4%

1 month

0.3%

2 months

0.3%

4 months

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What we know about Israel's missile attack on Iran

There are competing claims about the scale of Friday's attack on the Isfahan region.

Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024?86% chance

If Iran launches more missiles towards Israel in response to the recent attack will 2 or more people die61% chance

Iran launches barrage of strikes toward Israel: Live updates | CNN

Iran has launched a wave of strikes toward Israel in retaliation for last week’s deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria. Follow here for the latest live news updates.

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?6% chance

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