When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
96
Ṁ48k
Dec 31
0.6%
Before the end of Aug 2024
1.1%
Before the end of Sep 2024
1.7%
Before the end of Oct 2024
1.6%
Before the end of Nov 2024
10%
Before the end of Dec 2024
25%
Before the end of Jun 2025
78%
Before the end of Dec 2025
88%
Before the end of Jun 2026
93%
Before the end of Dec 2026
61%
Cease fire will happen when Benjamin Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister of Israel
1.6%
when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 40000
1.7%
when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 50000

Resolve if major news outlet reported that Gaza has a cease fire on that month
using Eastern European Time (the time zone of Gaza)

Middle East🇮🇱 IsraelArab-Israeli Conflict🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict🇵🇸 PalestineReligionIslamceasefire
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15 Comments
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Before the end of Aug 2024

@AmmonLam This can resolve to NO

Cease fire will happen when Ismail Haniyeh is still a major leader of Hamas

@AmmonLam Haniyeh has been assassinated so this should resolve to NO

Cease fire will happen when Ismail Haniyeh is still alive

@AmmonLam Haniyeh has been assassinated so this should resolve to NO

@mods june and july can resolve NO

bought Ṁ25 Before the end of Oc... NO

Presumably June and July should resolve to No

Cease fire will happen when Ismail Haniyeh is still a major leader of Hamas
bought Ṁ187 Cease fire will happ... NO

This can resolve no

Before the end of May 2024
bought Ṁ493 Before the end of Ma... NO

resolves no

when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 35000
bought Ṁ293 when cease fire happ... NO

@AmmonLam It's over 36000 killed now just for the Palestinian side, so this can resolve NO.

when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 50000

Is this just killed or does it count killed and injured?

bought Ṁ1,366 Before the end of Ap... NO

"Before the end of Apr 2024" resolves NO @AmmonLam

@AmmonLam bump

What kind of ceasefire are we talking about here? Biden has just called for a unilateral Israeli ceasefire - does that count?

@BrunoParga has to be bilateral ceasefire

@AmmonLam has to last how long before Hamas/Fatah/Hizbullah/Iran/Houthis/Iraq goes all October 7 on Israel again?

@BrunoParga it should be 7 days IMO like it is on some other markets

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