Hard Forkasts

Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?18% chance

Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?21% chance

Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?13% chance

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?7% chance

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?34% chance

Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?15% chance

Plus

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

92%

GPT-5 begins training.

85%

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

83%

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

76%

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

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How many of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true?

4%

1

0.8%

2

3%

3

2%

4

See 8 more answers

Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?13% chance