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Manifold Politics
Manifold Politics
Premium
Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
20%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1071
á¹€100k
Nick
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?
72%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
49
á¹€1k
jackson polack
Plus
Which party will win the US presidential election X which will win popular vote?
53%
Democrat wins popular vote and presidency
Yes
No
Open options
21%
Democrat wins popular vote, Republican wins presidency
Yes
No
Open options
6%
Republican wins popular vote, Democrat wins presidency
Yes
No
Open options
20%
Republican wins popular vote and presidency
Yes
No
Open options
48
á¹€10k
Andrew G
Kamala Harris's 2024 popular vote share
59%
>50%, wins popular vote
Yes
No
Open options
23%
<50%, wins popular vote
Yes
No
Open options
18%
<50%, loses popular vote
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
Exactly 50%
Yes
No
Open options
297
á¹€1k
Manifold Politics
Plus
Who will be the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 United States Presidential Election?
81%
Kamala Harris
Yes
No
Open options
19%
Donald Trump
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
Tim Walz
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
JD Vance
Yes
No
Open options
See 3 more answers
168
á¹€10k
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