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Trump
Manifold Politics
Manifold Politics
Premium
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
46%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
239
á¹€100k
Manifold Politics
Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
7%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
20
á¹€1k
Manifold Politics
Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 29th?
12%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
40
á¹€1k
Kevin Burke
Donald Trump Sr and Laura Loomer are in a sexual relationship? Credible evidence before March 31, 2025
20%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
324
á¹€1k
Martin Randall
Plus
When will Trump serve time?
65%
Never
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
2023 (NO)
Yes
No
Open options
3%
2024
Yes
No
Open options
19%
2025
Yes
No
Open options
See 6 more answers
2387
á¹€21k
Gordan Knott
Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ?
7%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
136
á¹€1k
Jes Wolfe
Plus
Will JD Vance be removed from the Trump ticket before the election?
4%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
422
á¹€10k
DismalScientist
What were the motives of the Trump shooter? [An option resolves YES if it was a contributing factor]
11%
Protect Democracy
Yes
No
Open options
4%
Combat Climate change
Yes
No
Open options
3%
Combating racism
Yes
No
Open options
3%
Socialism/communism
Yes
No
Open options
See 36 more answers
278
á¹€4k
Joshua
Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist be at least a finalist for a Pulitzer?
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
81
á¹€1k
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