AI Law - SB 1047

Controversial California bill to prevent AI disasters heads to Newsom despite pushback from Big Tech

California state lawmakers passed a controversial AI safety bill, SB 1047, that's been dividing tech firms, AI startups, and venture capitals.

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Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?NO

On the Proposed California SB 1047

California Senator Scott Wiener of San Francisco introduces SB 1047 to regulate AI. I have put up a market on how likely it is to become law.

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Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?64% chance

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Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?16% chance

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Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?64% chance

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[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?73% chance

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If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?12% chance

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If passed, will SB 1047 "cover" models/fine-tuned models from more than 10 organisations in 2029?N/A

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If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?45% chance