Will I think that 80,000 hours has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
11
Ṁ13102027
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, 80,000 hours has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO.
See also:
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
36% chance
Will I run at least 500 hours in 2024?
33% chance
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
63% chance
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
45% chance
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
70% chance
Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025?
Will I still be bitter and cynical about my own aging by the end of 2035?
52% chance
If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?
30% chance
Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?
24% chance
Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?
48% chance