Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
14
Ṁ9732029
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year. That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?
18% chance
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
35% chance
Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?
17% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
51% chance
Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
28% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
50% chance
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
22% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran’s current government be overthrown, removed, or collapse before January 2026?
22% chance