Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reaches or exceeds $5 trillion USD by the end of the calendar year 2027. The primary source for verification will be the World Bank's official GDP data. If the World Bank's data is unavailable or delayed, alternative reputable sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation may be used.

Background

India's GDP has been on a consistent growth trajectory, with projections indicating significant economic expansion in the coming years. As of 2025, India's GDP stands at approximately $4.3 trillion USD. (indiatoday.in) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that India will surpass Japan to become the fourth-largest economy by the third quarter of the financial year 2024-25 and is on track to overtake Germany by 2027. (indiatoday.in) Similarly, investment banking firm Jefferies projects that India will become the third-largest economy by 2027, with a GDP of $5 trillion USD. (hindustantimes.com)

Considerations

While projections are optimistic, several factors could influence India's economic growth trajectory. These include global economic conditions, domestic policy decisions, infrastructure development, and geopolitical events. Additionally, achieving a $5 trillion USD GDP by 2027 would require sustained annual growth rates, which may be impacted by unforeseen challenges.