Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district. The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State. (en.wikipedia.org)

Background

The 40th State Senate district encompasses parts of inland San Diego County, including cities such as San Marcos, Escondido, Poway, Santee, and various unincorporated communities. The seat is currently held by Republican Brian Jones, who will be termed out in 2026. (en.wikipedia.org)

As of now, three candidates have declared their intention to run:

• Kristie Bruce-Lane (Republican): A businesswoman and former member of the Olivenhain Municipal Water District Board of Directors. She has previously run for the 76th Assembly District and is the founder of The Thumbprint Project Foundation, a nonprofit focused on aiding children affected by domestic violence. (sdrostra.com)

• Ed Musgrove (Republican): A San Marcos City Councilmember and former San Diego County Sheriff's Deputy. He has served two terms on the city council and emphasizes issues such as public safety, housing development, and water conservation. (musgrove4senate.com)

• Marni von Wilpert (Democrat): A San Diego City Councilmember representing District 5 since 2020. She has a background as a civil prosecutor and has focused on issues like gun control, wildfire prevention, and reducing the cost of living. (kpbs.org)

Considerations

The 40th district has historically leaned Republican, but recent redistricting and demographic changes have made it more competitive. Voter registration data indicates a nearly even split between Republican and Democratic voters, suggesting that the outcome could be influenced by candidate appeal and voter turnout. (fox5sandiego.com)