Will The US Have A Lunar Nuclear Reactor on the Moon by the end of 2035
11
Ṁ582
2035
37%
chance

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/04/nasa-china-space-station-duffy-directives-00492172

The reactor directive orders the agency to solicit industry proposals for a 100 kilowatt nuclear reactor to launch by 2030, a key consideration for astronauts’ return to the lunar surface. NASA previously funded research into a 40 kilowatt reactor for use on the moon, with plans to have a reactor ready for launch by the early 2030s.

https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/glenn/nasas-fission-surface-power-project-energizes-lunar-exploration/

After Phase 2, the target date for delivering a reactor to the launch pad is in the early 2030s. On the Moon, the reactor will complete a one-year demonstration followed by nine operational years. If all goes well, the reactor design may be updated for potential use on Mars.

For the purposes of this market, I'll accept a reactor that is not operating continuously, but has at least done a basic test.

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