Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the country that first constructs and activates a nuclear reactor on the Moon. If multiple countries, such as Russia and China, jointly develop a reactor, market will resolve to the percentage each controls the completed and operational reactor. If no country achieves this by December 31, 2035, the market will resolve to "None by 2035." Verification will be based on official announcements from national space agencies or credible news sources.

Background

China and Russia: In March 2021, China and Russia signed a memorandum to jointly establish the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), aiming to build a nuclear power plant on the Moon by 2035. (tass.com) This reactor is intended to support long-term lunar exploration and habitation. (dw.com)

United States: NASA has been developing the Fission Surface Power (FSP) project, targeting the deployment of a 40-kilowatt nuclear reactor on the Moon in the early 2030s to support lunar bases and missions. (asiatimes.com) Additionally, companies like Rolls-Royce are advancing micro nuclear reactor technologies for potential space applications. (ft.com) Recently NASA under the Trump administration announced intentions to accelerate this plan (Politico)

Considerations

• Technological Challenges: Building and operating a nuclear reactor on the Moon involves significant technical hurdles, including transportation, construction in a harsh environment, and ensuring safety.

• International Collaboration: While China and Russia have formalized their partnership, the U.S. approach involves both governmental and private sector initiatives, potentially influencing timelines and outcomes.

• Verification Sources: Official communications from space agencies (CNSA, Roscosmos, NASA) and reputable news outlets will serve as primary sources for determining the achievement of this milestone.