Question
Will an individual or governmental entity conduct a large-scale geoengineering project to lower global temperatures by 2030?
Description
This market aims to predict whether a large-scale geoengineering project designed to lower global temperatures will be implemented by any individual or governmental entity by December 31, 2030.
Definitions:
Large-scale geoengineering project: A deliberate and significant intervention in the Earth's climate system with a specified goal of reducing global temperatures. This includes, but is not limited to:
Stratospheric aerosol injection
Marine cloud brightening
Space-based solar radiation management
Ocean iron fertilization on a large scale
The project must be implemented beyond the experimental stage and cover an area of at least 10,000 square kilometers or have a demonstrable global impact.
Lowering global temperatures: The project must aim to reduce the global average temperature by at least 0.1°C (0.18°F) compared to the baseline temperature at the start of the project.
Individual or governmental entity: This includes national governments, international organizations, private companies, non-governmental organizations, or wealthy individuals with the means to fund such a project.
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve positively if:
A large-scale geoengineering project, as defined above, is initiated and actively implemented before December 31, 2030.
The project is publicly announced and acknowledged by the implementing entity or credibly reported by multiple reputable news sources.
There is scientific consensus, based on peer-reviewed studies or reports from major climate research institutions, that the project has the potential to lower global temperatures as specified.
If an individual conducts this without the approval of any nation or government it will resolve to yes - individual.
The market will resolve negatively if no such project is implemented or if implemented projects fail to meet the specified criteria by the end date.