The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the final Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) Cost Estimate of the total scored increase in the deficit over ten years for the first qualifying reconciliation package bill signed into law subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2025, and by the End Date listed below.

For the purposes of this market, a bill shall be considered a qualifying reconciliation package if it is passed pursuant to the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.

If the CBO Cost Estimate does not include an estimate over a time period of ten years, this market shall resolve based on the average annual estimate (multiplied over ten years) contained in the estimate. In the event that the CBO cost estimate includes a range, rather than a specific number, this market will resolve based on the midpoint of the range.

Should a qualifying reconciliation bill result in a decrease in the deficit, the contract identifying the range “$1.5T or fewer” shall resolve as Yes. Should no qualifying reconciliation bill be signed into law before the End Date listed below, or should no CBO score be released by the time that a qualifying reconciliation bill is signed into law, all contracts shall resolve as No.

Any CBO Cost Estimate released on a calendar day after such a bill is signed into law will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. The letter "T" in the contract names denotes the word "trillion."

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: 12/31/2025 11:59 PM (ET)