Thaksin Shinawatra's one-year prison sentence began on September 9, 2025, and is scheduled to end on September 9, 2026. However, Thaksin has applied for a royal pardon to reduce his one-year prison sentence, and royal pardons have been granted recently, including six political prisoners freed under a July 29 pardon on the occasion of King Maha Vajiralongkorn's birthday. Royal pardons in Thailand are generally granted for medical reasons, and Thaksin has hypertension, insufficient rest and his hair is falling out. This market resolves YES if Thaksin is released from prison before DECEMBER 31, 2025, through royal pardon, early release, or any other means.
Resolution: This market will resolve based on official announcements from Thai authorities or credible news reports confirming Thaksin's release from prison. Sources include Bangkok Post, Nation Thailand, and Thai government press releases.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Thaksin Shinawatra is released from prison before his scheduled release date of December 31, 2025, through a royal pardon, early release, or any other means. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
Resolution will be based on official announcements from Thai authorities or credible news reports confirming Thaksin's release from prison.
Sources for resolution include:
Background
Thaksin Shinawatra's one-year prison sentence began on September 9, 2025, and is scheduled to conclude on September 9, 2026. He has applied for a royal pardon to reduce his sentence. Royal pardons have been granted recently in Thailand, including six political prisoners freed under a July 29 pardon on King Maha Vajiralongkorn's birthday. Such pardons are often granted for medical reasons, and Thaksin reportedly suffers from hypertension and insufficient rest.