Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if Tony's weight drops below 90kg at any point during the specified timeframe. It resolves to NO if Tony's weight remains at or above 90kg throughout the entire period.
Background
Weight loss typically occurs at a rate of 0.5 to 1 kg per week when following a healthy diet and exercise regimen. This is generally considered a safe and sustainable approach to weight loss. Achieving more rapid weight loss is possible but may be more challenging to maintain long-term.
Considerations
Sustainable weight loss typically involves creating a calorie deficit through a combination of dietary changes and increased physical activity
Factors such as initial weight, metabolism, consistency with diet and exercise, and individual health conditions can significantly impact weight loss results
Short-term fluctuations in weight (due to water retention, meal timing, etc.) can affect measurements, so multiple weigh-ins may provide more accurate tracking
Tony could drop below 90kg with a consistent calorie deficit, as even 0.5–1 kg/week is realistic with effort. Short-term water weight can shift results, so steady habits matter more than daily numbers. I personally suggest checking out the chicken and broccoli diet on BetterMe https://betterme.world/articles/chicken-and-broccoli-diet/—it’s a simple plan that helps with structure and portion control.