MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2039
Mini
7
Ṁ255
2040
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Multiple major western news outlets such as the BBC, Wash Post, etc. must report that a nuclear weapon has exploded on or near (<10miles) Taiwan's main island, any time through end of 2039

Nuclear RiskChina Taiwan potential conflict
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2029
9% chance
Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2026
4% chance
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
23% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
27% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
-3% 1d14% chance
Nuclear weapon detonations by 2033
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
72% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
19% chance

Related questions

Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2029
9% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
14% chance
Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2026
4% chance
Nuclear weapon detonations by 2033
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
23% chance
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
72% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
27% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
19% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout