MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
Mini
12
แน€1291
2026
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

Geopolitics๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RussiaLithuania
Get แน€1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
14% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
13% chance
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
29% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
4% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
29% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
10% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
9% chance
Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026
19% chance
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance

Related questions

Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
14% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
10% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
13% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
29% chance
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
9% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
4% chance
Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026
19% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
29% chance
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout