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IF I accept a local on-site/hybrid role: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
2
Ṁ147
Nov 1
70%
chance
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1W
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for context: https://manifold.markets/HansPeter/by-oct-31-2025-which-career-option?r=SGFuc1BldGVy

By Oct 31, 2025, which career option will I commit to?
My current job has high autonomy and stable pay but low peer support, leadership misalignment, immature engineering practices, and a draining commute. So i am choosing a next step. Four options: stay at current employer, take a local on-site/hybrid role, take a remote-first role, or focus on own products/projects. Decision deadline: Oct 31, 2025. „Commit” = by Oct 31, 2025, 23:59 (Europe/Berlin) I have (i) signed an employment contract or (ii) posted a dated written decision to pursue own products/projects as the primary focus (≥70% work time) and ceased active job search. Market resolves to the single option that best describes my primary focus for the period Nov 1–Nov 30, 2025 (tie-breaker = where most work time is spent). If no commitment is made by the deadline, or evidence is inconclusive → N/A.
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