MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?
โž•
Plus
12
แน€162
2030
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

If there's a tie, all tied models are counted.

๏ธ TechnologyAIGeopoliticsLLMsAI risk
Get แน€1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?
50% chance
Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?
12% chance
Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?
13% chance
Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?
41% chance
Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025?
26% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
72% chance

Related questions

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?
12% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?
13% chance
Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?
41% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025?
26% chance
Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?
50% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
72% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout