Will there be a profitable moon base by 2050?
39
Ṁ3490
2050
26%
chance

resolved YES, if there is a base on the lunar surface permanently inhabitated by humans for at least 3 months, and all revenues of the base exceed all costs.

Possible costs:

Initial construction, launch, salary, maintanance, etc. - but not the basic research & developement to make a moon base possible.

Possible revenues:

mining exports (such as helium 3), research contracts, space tourism, satellite launch contracts, real estate, manufacturing, refueling, entertainment, etc.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money