Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon? | Manifold

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

6

Ṁ118

Dec 31

72%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will base my resolution on the largest version of Gemini 3.0 released, not counting parallel test-time compute scaling (like deep think).

Will resolve if the model comes out before 2026 but Metr doesn’t evaluate it until after.

AI ️ Technology Technical AI Timelines Google Gemini GPT-5 Speculation

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Related questions

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Gemini 3's 50% time horizon, per METR

Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?

Will we know GPT-5-Pro's METR 50% Time-Horizon before November?

-6% 1d30% chance

GPT-5 Pro's 50% time horizon, per METR

Related questions

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Will we know GPT-5-Pro's METR 50% Time-Horizon before November?

Gemini 3's 50% time horizon, per METR

GPT-5 Pro's 50% time horizon, per METR

Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?