If the gerrymandered maps are struck down, will Democrats win a majority in the Wisconsin State Senate in 2024?
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4
Ṁ352
Dec 1
15%
chance

Wisconsin is one of the most egregiously gerrymandered states in the country, with Republicans consistently winning nearly 2/3 of the seats in the legislature, despite it being an evenly divided swing state. However, liberals now have a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, making it likely that the current gerrymandered maps will be struck down, allowing Democrats to potentially win a majority.

This market uses the same criteria as /JosephNoonan/will-wisconsins-gerrymandered-state to determine what counts as the maps being struck down, except that only the map for the Senate needs to be struck down. If that map is not struck down before the election, or if the old map is still used, then this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves the same as /JosephNoonan/will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-th-40303c85c94a

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/voting-rights/2023/8/3/23818858/wisconsin-gerrymander-clarke-wisconsin-election-commision-supreme-court-janet-protasiewicz

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-2024-election-gerrymander-abortion/

See also:

/JosephNoonan/will-wisconsins-gerrymandered-state

/JosephNoonan/will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-th-40303c85c94a

/JosephNoonan/if-the-gerrymandered-maps-are-struc

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