Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if any of the next four Starliner flights carry crew.

The market resolves NO if all four flights are uncrewed. Resolution will be determined by official NASA announcements regarding crew assignments for each flight.

The market resolves NO if Starliner is cancelled without flying four more times.

Background

The next Starliner flight is scheduled for no earlier than April 2026 as a cargo mission, pending additional tests and certification.

Starliner's crewed flights are delayed until at least early 2026 due to unresolved technical issues, mainly with the propulsion system's thrusters. NASA is slashing the planned number of Starliner flights from six to four. If the cargo mission goes well, then that will leave the remaining three Starliner flights for crew exchanges before the space station is decommissioned in 2030. During the Crew Flight Test, launched in June 2024, the Starliner's thrusters malfunctioned on approach to the ISS, and NASA concluded that it was too risky to return its astronauts to Earth aboard the spacecraft, so it returned uncrewed in September 2024.

Considerations

NASA is optimistic that another manned Starliner flight would take place for the second slot in the crew program in the later part of 2026. However, slating the first crewed, operational Starliner mission for the end of 2026 likely means the spacecraft's next launch won't include any astronauts aboard, with a strong chance of a cargo flight first.