MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
Mini
3
Ṁ42
2026
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

The Second Thomas Shoal is curently occupied by the Philippines.

This question resolves YES if China permanently stations armed forces on the Second Thomas Shoal

Geopolitics🇨🇳 ChinaSouth China SeaPhilippines
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
33% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
29% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?
64% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?
50% chance

Related questions

Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
33% chance
Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?
64% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
29% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?
50% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout