This market predicts whether the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) will announce a final State Water Project (SWP) allocation greater than 50% for the 2026 water year.

Context:

• The SWP provides water to 29 public water agencies serving 27 million Californians

• Initial allocations are typically announced in December, with final allocations determined in May or June

• The 2025 final allocation was 50% as of April 2025

• Lake Oroville, the SWP's largest reservoir, was at 67% capacity (112% of historical average) as of September 2025

• La Niña conditions are forecast for winter 2025-2026, which typically brings drier conditions to Southern California

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if the California DWR announces a final SWP allocation greater than 50% for the 2026 water year. It resolves to NO if the final allocation is 50% or less.

The final allocation will be verified using the official DWR announcement, which can be found at: https://water.ca.gov/programs/state-water-project/management/swp-water-contractors