MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will an apocalypse cult attack a civilian or military target in Taiwan before 2031?
6
แน€550
2031
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that an apocalypse cult has attacked a civilian or military target in Taiwan before January 1st 2031.

This does not include mass suicide events.

WorldGeopolitics๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ChinaChina Taiwan potential conflict๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan
Get แน€1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
30% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
-8% 1d32% chance
Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?
14% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
50% chance
China militarily attacks Taiwan by EOY2025?
4% chance
Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will there be a trend spike for the term "apocalypse cult" before 2030?
60% chance
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?
19% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
34% chance

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
30% chance
Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?
40% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
32% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?
14% chance
Will there be a trend spike for the term "apocalypse cult" before 2030?
60% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
50% chance
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?
19% chance
China militarily attacks Taiwan by EOY2025?
4% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
34% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout