If the proposed Alaska-Hawaiian merger goes through, your HawaiianMiles are going to get a lot more valuable. That’s because you’ll be able to use them for Alaska flights. Alaska Airlines’ program, called the Alaska Mileage Plan, offers pretty decent redemption rates for its award seats.

Alaska Airlines is part of the OneWorld Alliance, and as a result of the Alaska Airlines–Hawaiian Airlines merger, Hawaiian Airlines will be, too. Currently, you can book international flights on Hawaiian through American Airlines (another OneWorld member), and I predict that after the merger, all Hawaiian flights will be bookable with your American or British Airways Avios!

But don’t transfer all your Amex points to Hawaiian Airlines just yet—we don’t know if 1 HawaiianMile will equal 1 Alaska Mileage Plan mile. Plus, this merger needs to be approved by the Justice Department first.

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This question is from Kurt Adams' travel points and miles predictions at Going.com. This is a brand new prediction series for 2024 for Kurt, and the second series for Going.com. I am an unaffiliated Manifold user replicating the proposals here on Manifold.

I will resolve this market based on Kurt's self-stated resolution at the end of the year. See notes below.

In the same fashion I used for Scott Keyes' predictions last year, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of this year to (try to) avoid a situation where the resolutions post before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2025, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2025, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.