MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)
Mini
7
Ṁ651
Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

From https://metaculus.com/questions/17190/deny-all-allow-us-or-intl-licensing/

AIMetaculus
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025?
-5% 1d3% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)
76% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
10% chance
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
6% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)
82% chance
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
18% chance
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
4% chance

Related questions

Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025?
3% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
6% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)
76% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)
82% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
10% chance
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
18% chance
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)
5% chance
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
4% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout