Will Graphite (spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, FOB China) price above $1735/tonne at the end of this year?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15-17 microns, FOB China, exceeds $1,735 per tonne on December 31, 2025.

Background

Spherical graphite is a critical component in lithium-ion battery anodes, with China being the dominant producer and exporter. Prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as demand from the electric vehicle sector, competition from synthetic graphite, and changes in production costs.

Considerations

Market participants should monitor developments in the electric vehicle industry, advancements in synthetic graphite production, and potential changes in China's export policies, as these factors could influence the price trajectory of spherical graphite leading up to the end of 2025.