Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't want more exposure to tariff related risks
@Joshua Maybe Congress will act. Maybe the Supreme Court will act. But at some point you realize that Tariff Man's brain isn't a high temperature superconductor.
@MalachiteEagle my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.
@MartinRandall I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hurts much more when other retaliate... Like if others decouple from US banks and tech companies that's going to cause so much long term damage to the US...
@MalachiteEagle Right. The only thing stopping the rest of the world watching Disney for free are treaties like the Berne Convention. The US just tore up its adherence to the WTO "most favored nation" treaty. Where does it stop?
Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+ if Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The "will they / won't they" game has gotten complicated enough I've entirely lost track. Not exactly sure how they're measuring "imposed" vs "proposed" either.
I want to exit my NO shares, but this market is still trading 12% above Kalshi...
Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi?