Arb: https://manifold.markets/Calvin6b82/who-will-be-in-the-next-cabinet-of

@RichardHanania Can you clarify whether a recess appointment would count for this market?

I assumed yes, but other people disagree.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 A recess appointment doesn’t involve a nomination so I think clarification would be helpful!

@Predictor https://www.pornhub.com/view_video.php?viewkey=ph61539d7fe4ffa#1rond

FUCK YOU @BTE @strutheo @IsaacKing @jack @AlexJones

@RondaRousey Not too shabby! Thank you for sharing!

@RondaRousey why are you sharing a pornhub link lol

I think Trump will try to nominate RFK as a recess appointment to avoid confirmation hearings.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/us/politics/trump-republicans-senate.html

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Depends on Senate leadership. Thune or Cornyn won’t let him.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 But a recess appointment is not a nomination, definitionally, so if that’s your expectation you should buy no.

@njmkw I think this is an interesting question. If you look at the constitution, Art 2, Sec 2, Cl 2 says, “…[the president] shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States…“ I think that “and” after “nominate” muddies the water of whether nomination requires or is separate from “Advice and Consent”. However, it’s a separate clause (the one immediately following) that grants the power of recess appointment, so it could be interpreted as deliberately separate or distinct from nomination. One component of the real world process of recess appointments that may be worth considering is that, when one is made, the president must still prepare a formal commission of the appointment that the president has to deliver to the Senate. However, if we’re talking definitionally, Oxford actually may settle it, since it includes as one definition of nominate: “appoint to a job or position.”

Anyone know why the odds have crashed the past 24h?

@TheAllMemeingEye Best guess is that Trump is being reasonably conventional in his picks, which would make an outsider like RFK less likely.

Or just random fluctuations

@TheAllMemeingEye People are starting to understand that giving him a role in the administration is much broader than giving him a cabinet position.

With Gaetz and Hegseth, he's become less conventional, so the odds have come up again

Musk has way too much influence over how this cabinet will be formed to allow Trump to invite pseudoscience into it.

@RichardHanania I assume "Cabinet position" does not include Cabinet-level/Cabinet-rank (e.g. EPA admin or whatever Cabinet-rank position Trump might invent that does not lead an executive department)?

Yes, Trump will definitely win

I think folks are underestimating the chance that RFK gets a position that's not "cabinet" - there's only a few dozen of those!

Also underestimating the chance that RFK ultimately gets a cabinet position but is not formally nominated during the first 11 days of the Trump presidency.

@MattLashofSullivan Exactly. My money is on a non-cabinet position, where Trump won't have to risk the embarrassment of a senate confirmation hearing failing this early on

@Marnix Never mind, apparently Trump doesn't give a shit about a big embarrassment of a senate confirmation. This one's ENTIRELY on RFK.

Many positions do not require the candidate to be nominated for Senate confirmation. Nor, relevantly, do recess appointments.

From CNN:
Speaking to CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on “The Source,” Howard Lutnick, who said he recently spent two and a half hours with Kennedy, also said Kennedy is “not getting a job for (the Department of Health and Human Services),” which is contrary to a claim the activist made earlier this week in which he said Trump promised to give him “control” of several public health agencies, HHS among them. Lutnick also said tech entrepreneur Elon Musk would “help” rather than serve in the government if Trump wins.

"He says, ‘If you give me the data, all I want is the data, and I’ll take on the data and show that it’s not safe.’ And then if you pull the product liability (protections), the companies will yank these vaccines right off, off of the market,” Lutnick said.

RFK contradicted it
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4968959-rfk-jr-trump-white-house/

@Bayesian not necessarily: he seems rather non-committal about what specifically he wants to do, and by the sound of it he doesn't seem to care if it isn't actually a cabinet position so long as he gets to do the specific little things he wants done

@Marnix Trump team has said he fully itnends to honor the alliance and that rfk can have any role he wants

@GregMister Him being allowed to get any role he wants doesn't necessarily mean he wants a cabinet position, though. They could just as easily be negotiating a much easier to get non-cabinet position - something like Assistant HHS Secretary, FDA commissioner, Special Envoy - something where he could get the vaccine data he wants so he can "show that it's not safe," but without him having to sit through an embarrassing senate confirmation. What Lutnick was saying is that RFK wants a role where he can get that data, and that it won't be HHS secretary, but RFK is responding that he can get any position he wants. This isn't necessarily a contradiction.

all good points imo. this does make him getting a non-cabinet position pretty likely in my view