Will CARB Proposed In-Use Locomotive Regulation be shown to cause freight/passenger diversion to vehicles before by 2030
Mini
5
Ṁ52
2031
45%
chance

Resolves YES if a study is published on or before December 31, 2030 that looks at reductions in rail freight and passenger movement attributable to increases in regulatory costs, freight and passenger movement which must necessarily have been displaced to another modality of transportaiton.

Resolves NO if the topic is not examined or published in some manner that is actionable by policy makers. It may be unlikely to be examend due to the complexity of the analyizing decisions regarding goods movement at a macro level when there are so many individual variables at play at the micro level..

See in particular Master Response 1: Increased Mode Shift to Trucks and Passenger Vehicles in https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022/locomotive22/locomotive_rtc.pdf#page=12, where regulators recognize that there is a lack of infomration to quantify the potential of displacment to other modes but provide their rational for why if there was any displacment the displacment might be expected to be low.

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