GPT-5 Release Prop Bets
9
Ṁ1153
Sep 2
24%
Sam Altman mentions x-risk during release day
81%
Plus tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
90%
Pro tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
33%
Free tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
35%
Blog post out before 10AM PST on release day
50%
>=3 underlying models in routing
41%
Release makes front page of NYT
90%
OpenAI holds a live, publicly streamed launch event on release day.
80%
OpenAI publishes a model card for GPT-5 on release day.
45%
>= 10% Tier 4 FrontierMath score
20%
OpenAI explicitly claims it is AGI

Please only add answers that are likely be resolvable by the end of the day GPT-5 is released.

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

I'll resolve everything I can. But any mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.

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