The Standard Model (SM) provides a prediction for the mass of the W-boson based on fundamental constants. Physics beyond the SM could potentially alter the W-boson mass or affect the inputs used in the SM prediction. The CDF experiment at the Tevatron conducted the most precise measurement of the W-boson mass to date and discovered that it significantly exceeded the prediction from the Standard Model. Furthermore, the CDF measurement exceeded measurements from other experiments, particularly the ATLAS experiment at the LHC.

The CMS experiment at the LHC is anticipated to publish a W-boson mass measurement with precision comparable to that of the CDF measurement. The key question is whether this measurement will align with the SM within a 3-sigma margin.

This market will resolve as YES if, by the market's closing date, the CMS experiment publishes a measurement of the W-boson mass that is consistent with the SM at the 3 sigma level.

This market will resolve as NO if, by the market's closing date, the CMS experiment publishes a measurement of the W-boson mass that deviates significantly from the SM prediction at the 3 sigma level.

This market will resolve as NA if, by the market's closing date, the CMS experiment has not released a measurement of the W-boson mass. For the purposes of this market, posting the result on arXiv will be considered as publishing.

Rumors suggest that the CMS experiment plans to release their measurement in 2024, but the market's closing time has been extended to account for potential delays.