Resolution Method

This market will resolve YES if the majority of outputs from OpenAI’s o4-mini model indicate “YES” in response to the same prompt, run at least 15 times in independent, ephemeral sessions (fresh chats with no prior context).

Prompt Content:
All text that is highlighted when Ctrl + A is pressed on the market page will be copied and pasted into the prompt. If the full text exceeds the model’s context window, I will delete from the bottom up (e.g., older comments) until it fits.

Margin and Rerun Policy

• If the initial 15 runs do not yield at least 10 identical responses (YES or NO), I will run 5 additional prompts.

• This process repeats — adding 5 more runs each time — up to 3 total reruns (maximum 30 runs) if needed, until the margin between YES and NO responses is 5 or greater.

• If after 3 full attempts a margin of 5 is still not reached, the market will resolve NO by default.

Procedure

• Each run will be recorded exactly as generated, with no edits or cherry-picking.

• Each output must contain an unambiguous “YES” or “NO.” Any ambiguous or contradictory outputs will be rerun until a valid response is produced.

  The text : "Resolve this market" will be added if the prompt doesn't yield a clear response after 5 reruns.

• Each run will use a fresh browser session with no prior context, cookies, or chat history.

• The exact prompt text and all outputs will be published publicly after the market closes.

• The market creator will conduct the runs but will not otherwise interfere or participate.

Transparency

No edits, re-rolls, or cherry-picking will occur.
If the daily usage limit for the model is reached, resolution may be delayed by up to a week. If the model remains unavailable for more than 7 days after the market closes, the market will resolve NO by default.
“Identical responses” means unambiguous “YES” or “NO” answers.
The market will close on October 1, 2030, at 12:18 AM CEST (UTC+2).