Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034. For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
The market resolves to NO if no such conflict occurs before January 1, 2035.
Background
Turkey faces several internal tensions that could potentially escalate:
The Kurdish-Turkish conflict has been ongoing for decades, with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey and several other countries
Political polarization has increased in recent years, with protests following the detention of opposition figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu
Economic challenges, including currency devaluation, have contributed to social unrest
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has consolidated power, which has led to concerns about democratic backsliding
A failed coup attempt in 2016 illustrates political divisions
Considerations
While Turkey has experienced periods of significant internal conflict, it has not had a full-scale civil war in its modern history as a republic (since 1923). The government maintains strong control over security forces and institutions, which may prevent conflicts from escalating to civil war levels. However, regional dynamics, including conflicts in neighboring countries, could potentially spill over or exacerbate internal tensions.