Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on release, OpenAI states that GPT-5 has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI is typically defined as a system capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level equal to or beyond human capabilities. The resolution will be based on official communications from OpenAI, such as press releases, blog posts, or statements from key executives. If no such statement is made on release, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

OpenAI has been at the forefront of developing advanced AI models, with GPT-4 being the latest publicly available version as of April 2025. In early 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed confidence in the company's understanding of how to build AGI and indicated a shift in focus toward superintelligence. (time.com) Additionally, OpenAI's Chief Technology Officer, Mira Murati, suggested that future models like GPT-5 could exhibit "Ph.D.-level" intelligence in specific tasks, with a projected release in late 2025 or early 2026. (digitaltrends.com)

Considerations:

While OpenAI has expressed confidence in achieving AGI, there is ongoing debate within the AI community about the feasibility and timeline of such advancements. Some experts remain skeptical about the near-term realization of AGI, citing challenges in replicating human-like reasoning and understanding. (ft.com) Traders should consider these differing perspectives when making predictions in this market.

Closing date is subject to change.