By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine-
tune existing open source LLMs for X?
Mini
9
Ṁ1942028
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given a one-page description of the task, download and fine- tune an existing open source LLM, without more input from humans.
The fine-tune must improve the performance of the LLM on some predetermined benchmark metric.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
11% chance
By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?
76% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
72% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
77% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
70% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance
Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?
50% chance
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
64% chance