Will 2024 be the warmest year on record?
➕
Plus
86
Ṁ19k
resolved May 7
Resolved
YES

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.


Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ497
2Ṁ335
3Ṁ225
4Ṁ196
5Ṁ96
4 Comments
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 YES

There's now a >95% chance from this model that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656

What are the resolution criteria for this market?

predicted YES

@GooglyEyes I recommend copying mine from here.

predicted YES

@StevenK (though the "1.02" number will need to be updated)

Related questions