
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
Mini
13
Ṁ7892026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if DeepSeek has the top language model* in the world by a wide margin as of Feb 1st, 2026. If DeepSeek the organization is absorbed by another org, or otherwise transitions into a new org, then that organization's models are counted instead.
A DeepSeek model leading LMSys Arena by ≥90 points is sufficient but not necessary to count as "a wide margin."
Resolves NO otherwise.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
40% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
20% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
56% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
4.3
How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026?
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
84% chance