Will there be credible confirmation that PLAAF Commander Chang Dingqiu died in detention by 2026-06-30?
2
Ṁ21
2026
41%
chance

Resolves YES if (by 2026-06-30):
Any one of the following happens:

  • A PRC official channel (e.g., Ministry of National Defense / Xinhua / CCTV / PLA Daily) publicly confirms Chang Dingqiu’s death and indicates he was under investigation/detention; or

  • A major international outlet (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, SCMP) reports that he died in detention/investigation, citing sources.

Resolves NO if:
No such confirmation/reporting appears by the deadline.

Background

Chang Dingqiu is a general of the People's Liberation Army serving as Commander of the People's Liberation Army Air Force since September 2021. He is a member of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. High-ranking PLA officers have occasionally faced investigation or detention as part of anti-corruption campaigns, though official confirmation of deaths in custody remains rare.

Considerations

Deaths of high-ranking Chinese officials under investigation are typically not publicly confirmed by PRC authorities, making international reporting the more likely resolution pathway. The distinction between "detention" and "investigation" may be ambiguous in practice, as the PRC does not always clearly delineate these statuses. Additionally, international outlets may report unconfirmed claims from sources, so the resolution criteria require explicit sourcing rather than speculation.

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