Which forecast will most accurately predict the Electoral College result in the 2024 presidential election?
7
แน€477
Nov 4
13%
Polymarket Electoral College Totals Forecast
16%
Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast
21%
Metaculus Electoral College Totals Forecast
10%
538 Forecast
23%
Nate Silver Forecast
11%
JHK Electoral College Totals Forecast
6%
Other

Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on November 4th. The winner will be the forecast that comes the closest to predicting the actual electoral vote count for each candidate. In the case of a tie, the win will be split among the correct answers. Should I be unable to ascertain the predicted electoral vote count from one of the options, that option will resolve to "NO".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources make their final calls about the electoral college totals. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the results entered into the Congressional Record at the joint session of Congress where the winner is certified will control.

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What counts as โ€œotherโ€? I imagine there could be many obscure forecasts put out there. If one happens to get close, regardless of method, will this count?

@OracleAtWiFi Other is added by default to markets where it is possible to add more answers. Because I kept my ability to add additional answers, the "other" option exists to cover those other answers. I do not forsee adding any additional answers at this time.