Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on November 4th.
Difference between Electoral College Totals Forecast and Overall Candidate Odds:
Some forecasts/markets measure the likelihood a candidate will win independently of their forecast for Electoral College Totals. Accordingly, those forecasts/markets with that ability have been split into two separate questions. For an Electoral College Total forecast to be correct it does not need to show the correct number of electoral votes, it simply must show the winner of the election getting a majority of the Electoral College votes.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
@traders I just wanted to note two things
First, Kalshi has officially opened some of its election markets. While its current markets are limited to House and Senate predictions, it seems poised to launch a new market for the presidency. As I said before that will be added to this market after I give 12 hours notice.
Second, given that making predictions about events gets easier as the events get closer I wanted to note that I have 2 other markets open for betting on prediction forecasts. This one is based on the predictions from October 18th and has x1.5 the liquidity of this market and this one is based on predictions issued on October 1st and has x2 the liquidity of this market.
@traders PLEASE TAKE NOTICE:
At Noon EDT tomorrow the market currently labeled "Manifold Overall Candidate Odds" will be renamed "Manifold Overall Party Odds" as the party odds are Manifold's flagship odds forecast not candidate odds
Election Betting Odds will be added at noon EDT tomorrow
Should Kalshi launch a market forecasting the winner of the presidency that will be added after I give 12 hours' notice
As is my practice in my markets, 12 hours notice will be given to allow traders to prepare before any major changes are made unless there is a manifest necessity to make them sooner
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yes, however, should he issue a new prediction this will reflect the new prediction
This is an interesting question, because as a binary it isn't really measuring if forecasts work... just if the candidate they give a higher chance to will win. By this metric, Silver's forecast from 2016 that gave Trump a ~1-in-3 chance of winning would be just as bad as the many that gave him a 1-in-100 chance.
@MattP I think this election is going to be close so I would think there will be a variety of predictions so I think this will end up being an interesting market. However, I also have a market for the most accurate electoral college results and am planning on making additional markets for the most confident prediction of the winner and ones that are for snapshots taken earlier (e.g. correct prediction befoe the debate).