Ben Hylak has made a handful of predictions related to a question for which I have another market linked below.
This resolves YES if Ben Hylak is right.
https://x.com/benhylak/status/1936926061348134983
https://x.com/benhylak/status/1936950420854972810
I.e., this resolves YES if by 2026 either one of:
A Tesla Robotaxi is involved in an accident for which Tesla is at-fault
We learn that Tesla Robotaxis have an intervention rate similar to Cruise, which seems to have been reported as being close to 2-4% of the time, and at a frequency of about every 2.5-5 miles
I knew Cruise had a high intervention rate, but didn't actually read about it until today.
They admitted to the car calling a remote operator every 2.5-5 miles but "Of those, many are resolved by the AV itself before the human even looks at things, since we often have the AV initiate proactively and before it is certain it will need help. Many sessions are quick confirmation requests (it is ok to proceed?) that are resolved in seconds."
To me, this still sounds more advanced than Tesla's current robotaxi, which essentially has a permanent monitor in the car to constantly answer the question: "is this okay?"