Will the supreme leader of Iran (Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei) be killed before the end of 2024
Plus
75
Ṁ12kDec 31
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The question will be resolved as yes if there will be a mass media report of the death of the supreme leader of Iran, no matter of cause
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@ArashArbabi Natural causes in this period are quite unlikely and it would be impossible to determine whether Israel had their hand in killing him with that.
Related market I put up which can extend later: https://manifold.markets/LiamZ/-will-iranian-leadership-or-israeli
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31, 2024?
94% chance
Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
14% chance
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?
48% chance
[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
5% chance
Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will Iran use Iraq to stage an attack on Israel before the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will Naim Qassem's successor be killed in 2024?
24% chance
Will Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran's Quds force, be confirmed dead or captured by the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?
2% chance