Resolution Criteria:
The AI must win Gold in that particular Olympiad Competition before the end of 2025. The question set up allows people to vote yes or no for each listed Olympiad competition.
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Olympiads with potential practical or lab elements (e.g., Physics, Chemistry, Biology), resolution will be based on the creator's understanding that these are pen-and-paper only competitions.
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For competitions with practical or lab elements, the market will resolve to Yes under the following conditions:
The AI directs a human assistant to perform the experiments, with the AI providing the ideas and protocol.
The AI uses robots to perform the experiments.
The AI uses computer simulations, if this method is acceptable to the Olympiad committee.
Update 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to YES under either of the following conditions:
The Olympiad Committee awards a gold medal to the AI for answering only the theoretical part of the test.
If experiments are required to attain gold, the AI must complete them using the previously specified methods (e.g., directing a human assistant, using robots, or using committee-approved simulations).
@__lockheedmartin it is my understanding that those exams are only pen and paper. Do you have evidence to the contrary?
@AlanTuring IPhO at least is 30pt theory 20pt experimental; if you assigned AI an experimental score of 0 it would be pretty much impossible for it to achieve gold. I'm unsure of exact formats for chemistry and biology but I'm pretty sure they have lab elements.
IESO has a practical (usually field work) that is also scored alongside the test; I could see this being implemented by feeding the model images of the site in addition to the practical question paper.
@__lockheedmartin this is an interesting development. I will accept the AI as the one solving the problem if it directs a human to do experiments on its behalf. However, the AI must come up with the ideas and protocol to conduct the experiment and the human is only doing the physical work on behalf of AI that lacks embodiment. In that situation I will resolve it as Yes. Similarly, if the AI uses robots to do the experiments then I will resolve it yes. If the AI uses computer simulations to conduct the experiments and that method is acceptable to the Olympiad committee I will also resolve that as “Yes.”
@AlanTuring Can you confirm you would resolve NO if someone claims to have gotten a gold medal in the Chemistry Olympiad but only on the theoretical exam? No effort towards doing the practical exam.
@QuimLast Is there a separate medal for the experimental and theoretical side? Surely it’s still gold if the theoretical side had enough points to grant someone gold overall, is what I’m trying to say
@QuimLast someone earlier claimed that a student must pass both the theoretical and experimental parts of the test to earn gold. Do you have evidence that passing only the theoretical part can earn someone gold on the test?
@AlanTuring I'm not sure about chemistry specifically; it's different for each olympiad. However in physics the way the medal cutoffs work out (percentage based for all olympiads) it's impossible to get gold without some nonzero score on the experiment.
AFAIK all olympiads with practical components have unified medals for both practical and theoretical to make sure people don't prioritize only one; IESO has seperate awards for the group projects (ESP and ITFI) but that's different.
@__lockheedmartin If the Olympiad Committee gives gold to the AI for only answering the theoretical part of the test that would resolve this question as YES.
If attaining gold requires doing experiments then I will accept the AI using the methods previously mentioned to resolve this question as YES.
@Bayesian it's normally 60% of the grade from the theoretical exam and 40% from the practical exam. Someone might claim that the AI performed at the level of a gold medallist in the theoretical exam, while performing the practical exam would be out of scope. Or say something like "Would have gotten a gold medal if the practical exam was the average marks of a student" or something like that. Was just looking for some clarification!
“Notably, o3 achieves a gold medal at the 2024 IOI and obtains a CodeForces rating on par with elite human competitors.”
Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad
@AlanTuring Yes. you can resolve one option at a time. Try clicking the "resolve" button to open the options, you can easily click out of it. (There is similar linked market type where you have to resolve everything at once.)